Bold take: Jacob Misiorowski is poised to be the Brewers’ defining story of the next chapter, but the real question now is whether his sophomore season can match or outpace the breakout that captivated fans last year. And this is the part most people miss: sustained progress often looks quieter than a debut, even when the results stay encouraging. Here’s a clear, beginner-friendly rewrite of the original piece, enhanced with context and examples to help you follow the storyline as it unfolds in 2026.
Can he build on a remarkable first season?
Misiorowski arrived in the majors with extraordinary hype. His rookie arc began with 11 no-hit innings and he flirted with a perfect game deep into his season debut. Those moments helped him land an All-Star nod after just five big-league starts. Yet as the year progressed, a left tibia contusion and inevitable adjustments cooled the shimmer, though he finished strong with a postseason stint that kept him at the center of attention.
That sets a very high bar for season two. It also makes it trickier to set realistic expectations. Early projections are broadly positive. ZiPS forecasts 26 appearances across about 116 2/3 innings, a 3.86 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 10.93 K/9, and 3.93 BB/9. Inning totals would be down compared to last year, and strikeouts might dip a touch, but the walk rate could improve. This aligns with his minor-league track record, where small reductions in strikeouts often accompanied better control.
Fans should temper their expectations. A second All-Star year or a top-rotation status isn’t guaranteed. A season with incremental gains—solid, steady improvements in key metrics—would still count as a winner, signaling ongoing growth even if the fireworks aren’t as bright. And of course, if he remains electric and continues to establish himself as a top-tier pitcher, that would be a major win for Milwaukee.
How will they manage his innings growth?
If you’re thinking about workload, remember: teams rarely impose formal innings caps, but they do monitor progression carefully. Misiorowski jumped from 97 1/3 innings in 2024 to 141 1/3 across the 2025 regular season and postseason—a roughly 45% jump. Typical planning leans toward 20–25% bumps, but every pitcher is different, depending on how they respond to workload and recovery.
He faced a rough patch after a brief IL stint in August, posting a 6.41 ERA and 4.00 FIP in six starts following his return. He rebounded in his final two starts and shined in the postseason, allowing only two earned runs in three appearances over 12 innings.
It’s unlikely Milwaukee will push him to a 200-inning season in 2026. Most projections show a modest increase: ZiPS projects about 116 2/3 innings, while others land in the 134–139 inning range across roughly 30–32 appearances. A few forecasts also imply only 24–25 starts, which could reflect Brewers’ use of openers or a bullpen-leaning plan to manage his workload. It’s not off the table for him to log a full, traditional season of starts, but the team is likely to sprinkle in bullpen appearances or occasional start rest days to optimize his health.
The central question is whether this bigger workload affects him. He’s had a rest-filled offseason, but the jump in innings last year was substantial. Is he fully recovered and ready to duplicate or exceed that workload without losing effectiveness?
How do past Brewers second years compare?
Analyzing the Brewers’ recent history offers some guidance, though individual paths vary. The development staff has changed over time, yet Milwaukee has built a respectable track record for nurturing young talent. Here are a few notable examples:
- Brandon Woodruff: Debuted in August 2017 with a strong start against the Rays, then spent 2018 oscillating between bullpen and rotation before anchoring the postseason roster. 2017 stats: 43 IP, 8 games (all starts), 4.81 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 6.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9. 2018: 42 1/3 IP, 19 games (4 starts), 3.61 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9.
- Freddy Peralta: Debuted in 2018, alternating between majors and minors and later spending 2019 primarily in the bullpen. 2018: 78.1 IP, 16 games (14 starts), 4.25 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 11.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9. 2019: 85 IP, 39 games (8 starts), 5.29 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 12.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9.
- Corbin Burnes: Early success out of the bullpen followed by a rocky second year in the rotation, before finding his footing again. 2018: 38 IP, 30 games (no starts), 2.61 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9. 2019: 49 IP, 32 games (4 starts), 8.82 ERA, 6.09 FIP, 12.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9.
- Aaron Ashby: Debuted in 2021, became a full-time starter by 2022, later hit a shoulder injury that sidelined him for 2023–24. 2021: 31 2/3 IP, 13 games (4 starts), 4.55 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 11.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9. 2022: 107 1/3 IP, 27 games (19 starts), 4.44 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9.
So, how might Misiorowski fare in year two?
From the Brewers’ perspective, growth is the default expectation. With Tuesday marking the start of his second season, the trend line points toward continued development rather than a blockbuster leap. Expect a steady consolidation of his rookie gains plus a careful approach to workload management. If he sustains his velocity, sharpness, and control while adding a touch more innings, that would be a meaningful step forward.
Bottom line
Misiorowski’s second season will be easier to enjoy if you view it as a maturation arc rather than a single-game spectacle. The early outlook from projections suggests modest but meaningful gains in durability and efficiency, with a reasonable pace of appearances and starts. If he remains electric on the mound and shows year-over-year improvement, Milwaukee should consider him a cornerstone for their rotation for years to come.
Would you rather have Misiorowski push for another All-Star-worthy season or prioritize a sustainable, long-term workload that could maximize his value for the Brewers across multiple seasons? Share your take in the comments, and tell us which aspect of his development you’re most excited to watch this year.
